A year in Australian property unlike any other!

Successive interest rate rises, surging inflation, low consumer sentiment and deteriorating affordability drove a shift in Australia’s 2022 housing market performance, CoreLogic’s report reveals.

When summing up the year that was, CoreLogic Head of Research Eliza Owen highlighted two distinct characteristics of capital growth trends in 2022, with the first being that not all housing markets were uniformly impacted by market headwinds.

“More expensive markets tended to see sharper declines, while the more affordable segment of the market where buyers typically do not have to extend themselves as much to buy into, saw greater resilience to increases in interest rates,” she said.

“The second trend is the pace of decline has been slowing on a broad basis since September. While this may be seen as a positive by some, there is still a risk of the decline re-accelerating in the year ahead.”

CoreLogic Economist, Kaytlin Ezzy, added a prominent theme was the Australian property market’s seismic shift in conditions in the space of 12 months.

Over the year to November, national housing values fell -3.2%, driven by an annual decline in capital city dwelling values of -5.2%, while regional dwelling values rose by 3.3% over the same period.

The estimated total value of residential real estate decreased from $9.6 trillion in December 2021 to $9.4 trillion in November 2022. Estimated annual sales declined -13.3% compared to the year to November 2021, with approximately 535,000 homes sold nationally.

Market Outlook – 2023 crystal ball

One of the distinctive features of capital growth in 2022 was a slowdown in the pace of decline toward the end of the year. National value falls eased to -1.0% in November, following the steep monthly falls of -1.6% in August.

Ms Owen said although declines have been slowing, suggesting we may have moved past the peak home value declines, further rate rises are anticipated in the early months of 2023, which could cause the rate of decline to pick up speed once more.

“As we move into 2023, there continues to be a mix of headwinds and tailwinds for housing market performance,” she said.

“With expectations that the bulk of the rate tightening cycle occurred in 2022, housing value declines could find a floor in the new year. However, the extent of the floor in values could be further weighed down by mortgage serviceability risks, particularly for those rolling out of record-low fixed mortgage rates through the second half of year.

“But unemployment levels remain at historic lows, which plays a role in serviceability, helping to keep a lid on mortgage arrears. On top of that, strong rental markets and improving affordability from the point of falling values, may entice investors and first home buyers into the market, underpinning a recovery in buyer activity in the second half of 2023, when the cash rate stabilises.”

The above is extracted from the CoreLogic yearly “Best of the Best” report. We did not include the report as a whole as it is primarily focused on capital cities, our interest is regional and national. Read the full report HERE

Digital business hitch hikers

Tourism operator maintains rate integrity

Not so many years ago tourism operators relied on travel agents, word of mouth and advertising to source their customers. In today’s world we have an ever growing number of online travel booking services, feedback back sites and a digital world that is easy to become lost in. A digital disadvantage is common and something we coined as result of becoming aware at just how many businesses end up this way. It is not just small businesses or those in rural or remote locations, many businesses large and small end up this way through buying an existing business, a change of their operational location or simply wishing to delete a series of poor comments left by disgruntled customers of the business they have just purchased.

The most common mistake tourism operators make is handing all their sales and marketing investment work, to online order takers. This essentially affects their relationship with travel trade partners and their own booking processes in place. Recently whilst consulting to a small resort operator we learnt that they were being bullied by a well-known online booking agent who we choose not to name. The partnership abruptly ended as the resort came to realise the OTA was simply flogging their business as well as that of their trade partners by simply discounting the available product. All whilst stating in the contract terms that the resort was not able to undercut them in the market place, something they themselves were doing to the resort and its distributors. Additional to this, the resort in question was receiving bookings from customers that were not choosing their product because of its attributes or location, or because they wanted to be there, but were simply booking the property because all other nearby online options were unavailable or full so the properties client base changed which was leading to less favourable online feedback. Additionally the B2B distribution of this source lead to the product being misrepresented and often stated as BOOKED OUT when in reality there were plenty of rooms left. The online agent or B2B partner simply had no stock left to sell so directed the client to what their algorithm perceived as comparative products that were nothing of a sort.

As the relationship soured and the staff became fearful of those clients coming from that booking source the resort management made a conscious decision to terminate the contract in question along with others similar and swallow what looked to be a heavy revenue loss. They did so knowing this to be the case and the potential consequences. To minimise the losses strategic action was immediately put into place by remaining with other online agents and reviewing their supply contracts. This lead to stating clearly and enforcing in these supply contracts that no discounting of their product was on offer to club members or casual shoppers of those online sites. The operators were not keen at all, but agreed in order to maintaining the listing revenue. What we all learnt was that these online travel sites were offering every shopper a discount not just members and were changing this discount offer according to the origin of visitors and or bookings. So essentially whatever market the product was popular in, due to the resorts marketing investment, in order to secure more bookings from that market the online agent would tailor the algorithm to attract more customers from those markets. Why was this working? Because many punters want a deal or a perceived better price. 10% off is a substantial lever to make that process work.

Sticking with the new online plan was difficult, but management did so confidently. They had invested so heavily in marketing to those source markets, had great referral lines from in market agents and previous clients that they had to be able to claw back that lost market share. What happened surprised us all? The telephone started ringing again, online and agent bookings again surpassed those taken by online order takers, and the best of all, those that called to make an enquiry would book direct or with their local travel agent. Why? Because the price was the same! Additionally the service and information received through that change was accurate and personalised to their needs. Rate integrity is something many hotels, tour operators and accommodation providers overlook. For those that have no market relationships they have no reason to care. For those that do and additionally invest in their business future by marketing their product through distribution channels and their own online booking systems, rate integrity is paramount!

Pro’s and Con’s of DIY Real Estate sales

Selling a home, business or property asset without the help of real estate agent is far from a new venture. Today with numerous sites reaching out to private sellers the options to do so today are on the rise. However from nothing often comes nothing and many persevere with the DIY only to find themselves having lost loads of time and right back where they started. While thousands of dollars can be saved on agent fees, however there are many pitfalls to watch for, especially for sellers!

Essentially by engaging in a real estate agent you the vendor are paying for your agent to work for you and therefore to negotiate the best possible selling price. Additionally with the right distribution arms available to agents you are likely to get more for your buck than low budget options for the DIY. As agents are dealing with property transactions of various sizes, they generally know what the market is prepared to pay and when this is possible and the best marketing approach to take. Most importantly you detach yourself from the buyer when inspections take place ensuring security of your premises and are therefore unlikely to take comments or feedback personally from an agent versus dealing directly with the punter. Agents are also trained in legal and fiduciary matters relative to any sale therefore are able to keep you away from many of the pitfalls that are sure to lie in your path.

So consider this, put yourself as the seller in face with a buyer, it is quite an emotional decision making process fraught with danger. As a seller are you able to stand up to a aggressive buyer putting your valuable asset down in hope of a better deal. As a buyer private sellers are unlikely to disclose to you material facts relative to the property so you need to rely entirely on your own investigations. An agent is bound by law to disclose to a buyer any material facts about the property known to them. Additionally an agent’s role is to ensure that both parties are fully aware of the finer details related to the transaction as well as acting as a buffer that doesn’t get personal between both parties.

We have rarely seen private sellers have a successful campaigns due to the fact that they get upset when buyers are rude. They tend to think they are being ripped off in the transaction because they take it all personally. This is where things can go off the rails and in hind sight the agents commission becomes worth the investment.